Should Dems Change?
There are two emerging answers and only one will be proven right
Like a lot of us, I’ve been swallowed up in back-and-forths on text and emails with people I love as we try to understand this moment. I’m reading, listening, typing and texting instead of going to the gym or doing laundry. Yep, I feel smelly and fat because I am smelly and fat. Not sure that’s changing anytime soon.
It’s not just Trump who won big, it’s the entire Republican party. They swept the swing states. Trump improved on Obama and now Biden’s numbers seemingly everywhere. It’s a 2016 redux, but worse. I’ll leave the question of “why did XYZ voters in ABC demographics do this?” for smarter political analysts with exit data and day jobs in the business. Today, I’ll briefly talk about what Democrats should do about it.
Why do I get a say? While I’m just a lowly commoner scratching out a living, I’m a member of the party and I want my vote to win. It’s that simple.
I’m seeing two emerging answers to the “what should Dems do” question —
(1) Nothing! Kamala was a superb candidate. I already miss her. She may have made minor missteps but no major goofs. There were no scandals or last-minute forced errors. She’s a very good and smart person and literally the most highly-qualified candidate in the land as sitting Vice President.
She turned out to be an impressive communicator at massive rallies, on the debate stage, on social feeds and under television klieg lights.
She raised, managed and starred in a record-breaking multi-billion dollar campaign that worked flawlessly as it reached millions and millions of the right people in the right states. It’s the voters who turned on her by choosing Trump. That’s where scrutiny lies, not with the party or campaign.
Social media disinformation by Russia and other bad actors, a human weakness for a strong man when times are tough, and global trends of kicking out incumbents were the key factors at play. There’s little the Democratic party can do about that. I want more of the same with minor adjustments.
(2) Everything! Kamala, like Hilary, could never win swing states — the only states that matter with the anti-democracy Electoral College — since she never faced a competitive primary that would have weeded her out in favor of a stronger candidate, as we saw happen time and time again: with Obama and Biden, with Clinton but not with Kerry. It’s not that complicated. Had Biden not run for re-election, we would have had a primary. Like RBG, he stuck around too long. Like Obama, he forgot about Democratic party choice and used his vast power to select a nominee. If that’s not an example of absolute power absolutely corrupting you, what is?
Harris didn’t stand for anything coherent that you can point to and easily describe. What you can be scared witless of or laugh about from a mile away is Trump. It’s easy to spot his post-Iraq War isolationism, laissez faire anti-regulatory economics and pro-American manufacturing. And South Park (or something far, far more evil) racism and sexism.
If Dems lost traditional segments in swing states — black and brown people, educated white women, tradesmen — then those coalitions aren’t in fact coalitions.
The vaguely-defined liberal establishment of selective universities, traditional media outlets, party insiders and wealthy donors has now measurably and literally repelled more people than they’ve attracted.
What’s to blame?
I can think of two: (1) Progressive values that more people find threatening than not. (2) Economic blindness to what it’s like to live with lower incomes in higher expense locations — which is to say, everywhere. If you don’t have family money or a very, very well paying steady job, you’re not going to be middle class.
Until all that ideology and blindness completely and utterly changes, Dems lose.
As of this Thursday after the election, I don’t know if I’ll stick with the Democratic party. I won’t be a Republican, but registering as an independent seems more honest. Democrats are incapable of meeting the needs of the day. How do I know? My fellow Americans told me so.
The first argument about responding to this loss says the Democratic party should stay the same. These are the (now extinct) Never Trumpers of the Republican party, but for Democrats. They feel confused, angry, upset and alone. It’s the voters who are out of step, not the party. They know their talking points and sticking to them.
To me this perspective seems unhelpful for winning the next election.
I think we need a root-and-branch remake of the party. And the media that has sprung from the party. Thanks to family in Israel, I’m seeing that many Free Press columnists offer fresh insights I’m not getting elsewhere. They lean too deep into self-congratulations for my taste and certainly whiff of scary Republicanism and don’t report, just opine, but I get it. It’s one of many new sources for a new era and it isn’t the vomitorium of social media.
If you want to get extra nerdy, The Free Press seems like an update on HuffPo for a new era of not just politics, but also for technology. Specifically the printing press, now called a content management system (CMS) for online publishing. There’s now Substack based, device-agnostic email journalism (ahem!) that’s supplanted WordPress-based, desktop-focused blogs. What this means to traditional print categories is fascinating to observe since I truly love journalism and studied it a liberal elite grad school that I can brag about for the rest of my life as I pray to remain middle class.
Jerry Garcia sang it best: The wheel is turning and you can't slow down
The point is that if you lose a popular election you may want to try new techniques. On the other hand, Trump repeated 2020 but with a better campaign and a worse opponent, so I could be wrong. Maybe a heavily tattooed trans candidate on the left who majored in Palestinian Cuisine studies at Yale for a mere $400,000 will smoke JD Vance in 2028.
Since I'm in the camp saying Democratic change needs to happen, I see two options.
I think the evolution will involve new leadership and new values — either AOC-style progressivism that is clearly identifiable and builds on extant coalitions:
wealthier, college educated black and brown people
far left activists
academics and their cultural peers in establishment media and the arts
trans/queer people — not gays and lesbians, just the last two letters (why do bisexuals get their own letter, aren’t they all letters? I’ve never understood that but I’m envious.)
older 20th century liberals from the Obama/Clinton/Carter eras
urban working-class people, like what AOC once was
I don’t see how these bullet points can win a national election in battleground states, but they could form some kind of group that I can label and identify.
Or, and this is what I’m thinking is better, there will be a new centrist formula that’s championed by a Gavin Newsom or Josh Shapiro who crafts a non-identity-based politics that are coherent and clear. It’s a breakaway from the aforementioned Democratic Never Trumpers who lament losing their Republican party but have no answer for something different.
Big change is rare and risky. We’ve seen it with Trump over Republicans after 40 years of Reaganism, and in a smaller way for Democrats after Bernie Sanders in 2015 sparked a movement in urban coastal settings and college campuses after decades of Clinton & Obama neoliberalism.
Large institutions move slowly. There’s billions of dollars at stake. Change is hard.
But, if there's no change, I predict further Democratic losses despite a midterm blip in the House.
I feel the pain of Democratic-aligned people in both camps, sincerely. I’m shocked and worried about what happens after January. I'm not as scared as I was in 2016. We know this devil’s dance. Now if I can get allies in the Democratic party to counter him with an actual win, we’ll kick him off the dance floor.